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| #1097816 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 02.Jul.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Colin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Colin continues to become less organized, with only minimal convection currently occurring and surface observations showing that the circulation is losing definition. Offshore buoys have reported winds of 20-25 kt for the past several hours, suggesting that there are no tropical-storm-force winds left over water. Based on this, Colin is downgraded to a tropical depression, and all of the coastal warnings are discontinued. The current weakening trend is expected to continue due to increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, and Colin is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area within the next 12 h. The remnants are forecast to dissipate after 24 h as they merge with a frontal system over the northwestern Atlantic. The initial motion is an somewhat uncertain 055/6 kt. Colin or its remnants should continue to move generally northeastward through eastern North Carolina for the next 12-18 h, and then move out over the Atlantic before merging with the aforementioned frontal system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 2. Scattered areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 34.4N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
