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| #109840 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 09.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT CENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2238 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50 TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT. FLORENCE HAS FOOLED US BEFORE AND IT IS BEST TO WAIT FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST THE SAME AS BEFORE... 330/11... ALTHOUGH A SHORT-TERM MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER... SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... AS IT IS SOMEWHAT CAPTURED BY THE UPPER-TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO... THEN SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE...AND IN FACT THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES NEARLY A 50% CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT INDICATED ALMOST THE SAME PROBABILITIES 24 HOURS AGO. FLORENCE HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN AND HAS REFUSED... SO FAR... TO INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ALMOST ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT WITH SOME REDUCTION BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 64.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 27.9N 65.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 29.8N 65.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.8N 65.4W 85 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.4N 64.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB |
