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| #110115 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 11.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST FINISHED ONE COMPLETE PATTERN IN FLORENCE...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 73 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 86 KT FOUND ON THE PREVIOUS MISSION. THE CREW ALSO REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD ERODED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IMAGES FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE IS HOLDING STEADY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN INTENSITY BEFORE FLORENCE MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA. AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW ENERGY TO FLORENCE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SLOW THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD. FLORENCE HAS BEGUN ITS RECURVATURE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 010/10. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A FASTER EASTWARD MOTION...BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 31.8N 66.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 33.6N 65.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 64.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 38.5N 62.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 41.5N 60.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 46.5N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0600Z 50.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
