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| #110152 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 11.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. THIS REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT OTHERWISE THE TRACK REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND HEAD FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE RIGHT AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE THIN AT THE MOMENT AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THE HIGHEST UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WERE 25-30 KT. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS TO GET A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...AND IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ON STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.1N 56.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.4N 57.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 22.3N 58.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 23.3N 59.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 24.3N 60.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 29.0N 62.4W 55 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 32.0N 61.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
