Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #110161 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 11.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN ONLY A FEW MB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BERMUDA...INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE ON THE ISLAND. THE LATTER REPORT WAS RELAYED TO US BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER VELOCITIES OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 80 KT. THE GUST FACTOR IS ALSO SET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE SAME OBSERVATIONS. BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FLORENCE'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEREAFTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART SOME WEAKENING....HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDE NEW ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEAKENING PROCESS SLOW. WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND GFDL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE RIGHT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 32.9N 65.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 34.7N 64.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 37.1N 63.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 43.4N 56.7W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/1200Z 47.5N 46.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
