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| #11034 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 01.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004 AFTER NEALY TWO WEEKS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LISA REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE 8TH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY... SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION... LATEST AVAILABLE SSMI SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE 64 KNOTS AND 987 MB PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...LISA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LISA IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE ...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 38.4N 45.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 40.5N 42.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 43.5N 37.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 45.5N 29.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL |
