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| #110352 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 12.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/17. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS IN THE EARLY TO MID STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICALLY DISPLACED NORTHWARD OF THE CENTER...DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE HAS ERODED MOST OF THE INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURES ARE STARTING TO FORM. ADDITIONALLY...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE ONLY THING KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL IS A SMALL AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL NOT BE COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE...TRANSITION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER. GIVEN THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BAROTROPIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE WANING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BAROCLINIC FORCING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON THE LARGER SCALE EVEN AS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND WINDS DECAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BY DAY 5. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 37.2N 62.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 39.4N 60.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 42.7N 57.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 13/1800Z 45.7N 53.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/0600Z 47.6N 48.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/0600Z 49.5N 33.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0600Z 53.0N 17.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN |
