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| #1103689 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 20.Aug.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 ...DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 97.3W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 97.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue, bringing the system across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this evening and tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some development is possible during the next few hours, but the chances of this system becoming a tropical cyclone are decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area during the next several hours. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along the northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas today. These rains could produce isolated flash flooding across coastal northeast Mexico. Rainfall amounts of less than an inch are expected farther to the north across far South Texas. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX... up to 1 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern Mexico and southern Texas through early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
