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| #1103690 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 20.Aug.2022) TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Satellite images, surface observations, and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized this afternoon and still resembles a surface trough with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. The chances of this system becoming a tropical storm continue to decrease as the trough is expected to move inland this evening. Even though the system will probably fall short of becoming a tropical cyclone, the expected impacts are unchanged as heavy rains and winds to tropical storm force, especially in gusts, are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the next several hours. After landfall, the disturbance is expected to weaken and dissipate on Sunday. The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates on Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this evening and tonight, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Rain from the disturbance are beginning to affect the northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected there. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 24.4N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0600Z 26.3N 98.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
