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| #110411 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 12.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE WELL INTO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CANADA. AS FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT...MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...AND CONTINUES TO DRAW IN STABLE AIR...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE LESS IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0902 UTC...DETECTED SOME HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC SOURCE OF ENERGY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS FLORENCE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/16. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE BAHAMAS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 38.2N 61.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 40.6N 58.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 13/1200Z 43.9N 55.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 14/0000Z 46.5N 50.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/1200Z 47.8N 44.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1200Z 49.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
