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| #110465 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 12.Sep.2006) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 FLORENCE IS QUICKLY BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ONLY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS AND AN EXPERIMENTAL SURFACE ADJUSTED CLOUD DRIFT WIND PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/17. FLORENCE HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN. LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 39.3N 59.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 41.8N 56.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 14/0600Z 47.2N 46.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/1800Z 48.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1800Z 49.5N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
