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| #110473 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 12.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES... THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS WELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A NORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 23.7N 58.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 24.6N 58.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 58.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 27.7N 58.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 58.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 56.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH |
