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| #1105282 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 01.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation. The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory prediction and lies between the model consensus aids. Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters. Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
