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| #1105314 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 01.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 The high-latitude tropical cyclone has had quite the increase in organization today. Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery shows decent banding features and convection wrapping around the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB both estimate Danielle to be a 45-kt system. However, since the storm has continued to improve in appearance, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Danielle is drifting eastward at 2 kt. A strong anticyclone over the system is creating light and variable steering flow and Danielle should continue to meander for the next few days. In about 4 days, the anticyclone is expected to weaken and move eastward and a mid-latitude trough should turn and accelerate Danielle to the northeast. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly westward from the previous prediction and is close to the model consensus aids. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be conducive for additional strengthening during the next few days. The tropical storm is over anomalously warm waters and global model guidance indicates the vertical wind shear should gradually decrease over the next few days. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the recent strengthening trend and now shows a peak intensity of 85 kt in 60 hours. Thereafter, when Danielle is forecast to turn northward, it is expected to gradually weaken over cooler water temperatures and increased vertical wind shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 38.1N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 38.1N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 38.7N 44.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 42.5N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
