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| #1105421 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 02.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning. A ragged eye is evident in conventional satellite imagery, and deep convection surrounds much of the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ASCAT-B pass missed the center but caught the eastern portion of the circulation. It showed winds up to 52 kt on the inner edge of the swath and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 100 n mi in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates support raising the initial intensity to 65 kt, which makes Danielle the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally favorable for some additional strengthening during the next couple of days. The hurricane will meander over 27C SSTs in an environment of light to moderate deep-layer shear. Danielle is a higher-latitude storm, and so there is the potential for some mid-level dry air entrainment that could briefly disrupt the cyclone`s organization. The latest intensity guidance consensus still favors some additional strengthening through Sunday. The official NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and lies slightly above the model consensus. After 72 h, weakening is expected to commence as Danielle gains latitude and moves over cooler waters while it encounters more deep-layer shear within the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the 12-hr motion of Danielle has been an easterly drift, the hurricane appears to have become nearly stationary this morning. The cyclone will likely continue to meander over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days under the influence of a blocking high pressure ridge. This feature is forecast to weaken by early next week, which should allow Danielle to begin moving northeastward by 72 h and accelerate deeper into the mid-latitudes on days 4-5. Once again, it appears Danielle will not begin extratropical transition until beyond the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast generally lies near the center of the guidance envelope, close to the reliable consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 37.9N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 38.0N 43.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 38.1N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 39.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 41.0N 40.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 42.5N 36.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
