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| #1105492 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 02.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM EARL FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 60.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 60.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible. Rapid rises on rivers are also possible in Puerto Rico. WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
