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| #1105532 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 03.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022 Satellite imagery and radar data from Guadeloupe show that Earl remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center located to the west of the main convective mass. Various satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-45 kt range and have changed little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Earl starting near 1000 UTC. The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Earl should move west-northwestward and northwestward with a decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days as it is steered by the subtropical ridge. There is little change in this part of the forecast track from the previous advisory. After that time, a slower motion toward the north and eventually north-northeast is expected as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Atlantic to the west and north of Earl. The guidance envelope for the latter part of the forecast track has shifted eastward, and while the new forecast track is also nudged eastward it is west of the consensus models from 60-120 h. Earl is feeling the effects of moderate westerly shear, and current indications are this will continue for the next 48 h or so. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain as Earl turns northward. While some shear is likely to continue, the dynamical models are in good agreement that the cyclone will strengthen, possibly due to a favorable interaction to the aforementioned upper-level trough. However, there is poor agreement between the models in the details of this interaction. Given that, the intensity forecast from 72-120 h will show a little more strengthening than the previous forecast. However, the forecast intensities are on the low side of the guidance envelope. Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl`s center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls, area possible on those islands over the next day or two. 2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid rises on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.2N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.9N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.6N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 21.2N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.6N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 24.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
