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| #1105570 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 03.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 Satellite images indicate that Danielle has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep convection, especially on its north side, but there are dry slots that have entrained into the south side of the circulation. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Danielle has been moving very slowly to the west-northwest at 2 kt and is back over the same location where it was 24-36 hours ago. A continued slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight as the storm remains steered by a blocking ridge to its north. However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast on Sunday followed by a faster motion to the northeast after that as a trough currently over eastern Canada approaches Danielle. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread on where and how sharply the storm is expected to turn. The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short term, but ends up near the previous forecast from 48 to 120 h, and it lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Danielle has been over its own cool SSTs wake during the past 12-18 hours, which possibly caused the observed slight weakening. However, as the storm pulls away from that area and remains in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, Danielle will likely restrengthen during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in shear should cause some weakening. Danielle is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period when it merges with the approaching trough and moves over SSTs near 20C. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 38.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 38.2N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 38.4N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 39.7N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 41.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 43.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 46.8N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
