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| #1105612 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 03.Sep.2022) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 63.2W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 63.2W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 64.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 65.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 66.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.1N 66.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART |
