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#1105645 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 03.Sep.2022)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 65.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 64.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG