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| #1105725 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 04.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 Danielle has slightly improved in satellite presentation this morning. First-light visible imagery still showed a ragged eye that could be trying to clear out. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 77 kt, and the objective estimates have risen, though are still somewhat lower. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt to represent a blend of the latest classifications. The hurricane is expected to be over relatively warm waters and in a region with low vertical wind shear for about another day. These oceanic and atmospheric factors should allow Danielle to gradually strengthen. Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move over cooler waters and encounter moderate deep-layer wind shear which will likely result in weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus model aids. Danielle is still expected to become an extratropical cyclone in about 5 days. Danielle is still drifting in the Central Atlantic with the latest motion estimated at 270/1 kt, but model guidance insists a turn to the north should occur today ahead of a mid-latitude trough over eastern Canada. Then Danielle is expected to turn northeast with an accelerated forward motion in about a day. The storm should then turn east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow in a few days. The latest forecast is similar to the previous advisory in terms of location with a slightly accelerated along-track motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 38.1N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 38.6N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 39.5N 44.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 41.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 43.5N 36.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 45.5N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 46.7N 21.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
