Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1105758 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 04.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 Danielle`s satellite presentation continues to gradually improve. A microwave pass from earlier this afternoon showed a well-defined band wrapping around most the center of circulation and only open to the south. While a scatterometer pass missed the inner core, it did measure the periphery of the hurricane and revealed that the tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of the circulation extended slightly less from the center than previously estimated. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 77 kt, and therefore the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt. There is still about a 24-hour window in which global model guidance suggests oceanic and atmospheric conditions should be conducive for slight strengthening. Danielle is expected to begin weakening beyond 24 hours when the system traverses cooler ocean surface temperatures and encounters stronger deep-layer wind shear. The official intensity forecast now shows Danielle reaching its peak intensity in 12 hours. The system is still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 5 days. The hurricane appears to be making its anticipated turn to the north with a motion of 360/2 kt. Over the next few days, Danielle is expected to turn to the northeast and accelerate ahead of a trough currently located over eastern Canada. As the storm reaches higher latitudes, it will likely turn east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and lies closest to the correct consensus model aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 38.5N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 40.2N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 41.2N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 42.9N 37.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 44.0N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 45.9N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 47.0N 19.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
