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| #1105794 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 04.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022 Danielle has become better organized during the past several hours. GOES-16 ProxyVis and BD-curve enhanced IR imagery show a much improved inner core structure with a clear warm 14C eye. The cloud pattern also comprises a well-developed outer curved band with -65C cloud tops. A blend of the subjective and UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates raises the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory. Danielle is forecast to remain over SSTs of around 26-27C and in a low-shear environment during the next 36 hours. As a result, the statistical SHIPS intensity model and the intensity consensus aids call for Danielle to maintain its current intensity during that time, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Beyond 36 hours, gradually decreasing oceanic surface temperatures along the forecast track and increasing southwesterly shear should weaken the cyclone. The latest Florida State Cyclone Phase Analysis shows that the UKMET and the GFS agree with Danielle commencing an extratropical transition around 48 hours. The analysis also indicates that Danielle will complete its transition by 96 hours (Thursday evening), and this cyclone transformation is shown in the official forecast. The hurricane`s initial motion is estimated to be northeastward and at a slightly faster pace of 6 kt. Danielle should continue to accelerate northeastward during the next 36 hours in response to a mid-latitude major shortwave trough approaching from the northwest, out of the Canadian Maritimes. By Tuesday night, the storm should turn toward the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies and continue in this general heading through the period. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous advisory beyond 60 hours to agree more with the TVCA and HCCA consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 39.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 39.8N 44.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 40.9N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 41.7N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 42.4N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 43.3N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 44.4N 33.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 46.6N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 48.4N 17.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts |
