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| #1105798 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 04.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 Earl continues to produce intense deep convection with tops colder than -80 deg C over the eastern portion of its circulation, but the system still lacks clear-cut banding features. A 2306 UTC SSMIS microwave image showed that the low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of the main area of convection. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 kt to 55 kt, and given that there has been no obvious change in organization since the aircraft missions earlier today, the current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The storm is still being affected by southwesterly vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level trough located several hundred miles to the west and northwest. However, Earl`s upper-level outflow pattern is gradually becoming better defined, and global model predictions suggest a slow relaxation of the shear over the next several days as the trough shifts a little to the northwest. Since the other environmental factors appear conducive for strengthening, gradual intensification is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to both the simple and corrected model consensus and also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. Earl could become the first major hurricane of this Atlantic season. Earl`s motion is a somewhat uncertain but slow 305/3 kt. The storm remains in a region of weak steering currents with mid-level anticyclones currently located to the west, northwest and east. By tomorrow, however, Earl should begin to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to start coming under the influence of a trough in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the north-northeast and northeast. The official track forecast is just slightly left of the previous NHC track and close to the latest dynamical model consensus. This is roughly in the middle of the rather tightly clustered track guidance model suite. While tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to stay north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, training rainbands are producing heavy rainfall over portions of these islands. Users should refer to products issued by local weather offices in these areas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in areas that receive heavier rainfall totals. 2. Earl is forecast to remain to the north of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, but gusty winds, especially in squalls, remain possible on those islands overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.2N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.3N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 23.6N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 24.5N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 25.4N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 26.4N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.7N 64.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 32.0N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
