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| #110582 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 13.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE IN POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 0544 UTC CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 63 KT...SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. GORDON HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT UNTIL GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS...PROBABLY IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/7...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS GORDON MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW GORDON SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 2 OR 3 AS THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE LIFTS OUT. THE MOVEMENT OF GORDON BEYOND THAT POINT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4 BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.1N 57.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.4N 57.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 57.2W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 29.7N 56.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 30.9N 55.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 32.5N 54.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 34.0N 52.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 36.5N 49.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB |
