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| #1105867 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 05.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022 Danielle`s satellite presentation has degraded since this morning. Cloud tops have warmed and its eye-like feature is not very well defined anymore. The hurricane has reached a relatively cool part of the Gulf Stream, which could be a main factor in its apparent weakening. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) have decreased, so the initial intensity has been lowered conservatively to 75 kt, which is at the high end of the estimates. The lower initial intensity has also contributed to a lower intensity forecast, but the idea is generally the same. Danielle should slowly weaken during the next few days as it continues northeastward over marginally warm waters. The exact timing of the cyclone`s upcoming extratropical transition is still uncertain, but most models indicate it should complete the process on or by Thursday. Further weakening is expected by all global models after that time, which continues to be reflected in the NHC forecast. Negligible change was made to the portion of the track forecast when Danielle is expected to be a tropical cyclone. The hurricane is forecast to move generally northeastward today and east-northeastward through the middle of the week, steered by a mid-latitude system approaching from the northwest. At the end of the forecast period, most global models now suggest Danielle could make a sharp northward turn as an extratropical cyclone. This would represent a significant change to the day 4-5 forecast, so I would prefer to see if that stays consistent for another cycle of model runs before making too big of a change. The official track forecast is therefore very close to the multi-model consensus through 72 h, but is notably to the south and east of the consensus at days 4 and 5, That said, it has still been adjusted to the northwest of the previous forecast at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 40.2N 43.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 41.1N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 43.4N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 44.7N 33.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 46.3N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 49.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 52.0N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
