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| #1105947 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 05.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022 Earl`s cloud pattern consists of a rather round area of very deep convection with a few ragged banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation. Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that the intensity is now near 60 kt and the central pressure has fallen to around 991 mb. Thus, Earl is very close to hurricane strength at this time. Radar reflectivity images from the aircraft show an eye-like feature is developing. The Doppler wind data from the aircraft also reveal that the vortex is becoming more vertically aligned than it had been. During the next few days, the system will be moving through an area of diffluent anticyclonic upper-level flow, and the thermodynamic environment should be conducive for intensification. These factors, along with the current strengthening trend, argue for continued intensification despite the presence of significant southwesterly shear through 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, prediction and continues to call for Earl to eventually become a major hurricane. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward near 6 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, a broad approaching trough in the southern stream of the mid-latitude westerlies should cause Earl to turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast, with some acceleration. The official track forecast is just slightly to the left of the previous NHC track in the 2-3 day time frame and is close to the latest HCCA solution. Earl`s center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in around 3-4 days. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 25.8N 65.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 27.3N 65.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 30.8N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 35.5N 58.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 41.0N 53.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
