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| #1106005 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 06.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 06 2022 Danielle`s overall appearance has changed little this morning. The system remains characterized by fragmented deep convection within a symmetrical and vertically stacked circulation. In addition, an eye feature has remained generally identifiable in visible satellite imagery. The latest Dvorak CI values of 4.0 from TAFB and SAB also suggest little change in intensity, and thus the system will be kept as a 65-kt hurricane for this advisory. The hurricane has slowed its forward motion, and over the past 12-h the system has been moving east-northeastward at around 5 kt. Danielle is expected to accelerate east-northeastward tonight in the increasing flow ahead of a digging upper-trough. This trough is forecast to spawn a baroclinic system west of Danielle by late this week, forcing it to make a cyclonic loop while the two systems merge into a larger extratropical low. The merged system is then forecast to move east-southeastward to southeastward over the weekend. There was little change to the NHC track forecast compared to the previous advisory. Danielle is forecast to continue over SSTs of about 25 degrees C over the next 12-24 h, so little change in strength is indicated during that time. However, on Wednesday the cyclone should cross a tight SST gradient and begin traversing over waters of 20 degrees C or less for the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of these cooler waters and the interaction with the baroclinic system should cause extratropical transition to complete by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is close to the various multi-model consensus and SHIPS values. Danielle is producing a large area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. Complete information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 42.2N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 42.6N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 43.7N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 47.5N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 50.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 48.2N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 45.5N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto |
