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#1106007 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 06.Sep.2022)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 65.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 60SE 30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 65.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 61.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 39.3N 52.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 44.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN