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| #1106089 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 06.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022 Earl continues to be become better organized this evening. An ongoing NOAA reconnaissance mission measured 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 80 kt, which supports an intensity of around 70 kt. There were some higher winds measured by the SFMR and dropsondes, however, we prefer to remain on the conservative side given the fluctuations Earl has been experiencing over the past 24 hours. Radar images show the eyewall is still open to the south, and Earl is likely is still experiencing the affects of strong shear. The aircraft fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward at 6 kt. A mid-level ridge over the hurricane is expected to continue weakening while a trough moves off the coast of the eastern United States. This trough is predicted to steer Earl to the northeast in about a day or so and accelerate its forward motion poleward. Once again, the track model guidance has shifted west slightly, and the NHC track forecast has moved to the west and is closest to the correct consensus model guidance. Despite the model-analyzed strong westerly deep-layer shear, Earl has intensified. This magnitude of shear is predicted to continue for another day or so before weakening briefly in about two days for a 24-hour period. Oceanic conditions under the hurricane are expected to be conducive for further intensification for the next few days as well. Therefore, the latest official forecast predicts the hurricane will continue to intensify for the next 24 hours, with a quicker rate of strengthening between 24 and 72 hours. Earl is expected to make its extratropical transition by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Earl`s center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds possibly spreading across the island on Thursday. 2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 24.8N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 27.3N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 29.1N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 31.1N 63.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 33.7N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 42.9N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 44.9N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch |
