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| #1106100 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:05 AM 07.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 200 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING EARL... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 65.9W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 65.9 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda by Thursday evening. Preliminary data from the reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning on Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm across Bermuda through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
