Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1106194 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 07.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022 Danielle has generally changed little since this morning and it remains an impressive hurricane for being at a relatively high latitude of around 45 N. The system continues to have a large eye with a fairly symmetric convective pattern surrounding it. The Dvorak estimates at 18Z range from 65 to 77 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. A mid-to upper-level trough is quickly approaching Danielle, and it should cause an increase in shear soon. The higher shear, interaction with the trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along the predicted track should cause Danielle to complete extratropical transition on Thursday and cause the cyclone to gradually decay. The intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one. Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, which is the fastest this system has moved in quite some time. This general motion should continue through tonight, however, a slow down and counterclockwise loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when Danielle interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 44.9N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 46.4N 32.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 48.7N 31.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 50.4N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 49.7N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0600Z 47.3N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 45.3N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 42.1N 17.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z 42.3N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
