Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1106272 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 08.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 Earl has developed a 20-30 n mi wide eye in infrared satellite imagery, although a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight indicates that the circulation is still tilted toward the east with height due to continued moderate shear. That said, this particular flight measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 97 kt and SFMR winds as high as 82 kt, while the central pressure dropped to 969 mb. Recent research on SFMR measurements from the NOAA Hurricane Research Division and the University of Miami has shown that the SFMR undersampling for a hurricane of Earl`s size is typically about 10 percent, which would suggest that the maximum winds are up to around 90 kt. This estimate also more closely aligns to the 107-kt flight-level wind measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight last evening. The reconnaissance mission found Earl`s low-level center to be located just a bit to the west of the previous forecast track, and it`s still moving toward the north (005 degrees) at 8 kt. With a shortwave trough now moving off the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts, Earl is expected to turn north-northeastward and begin accelerating later today, with its center forecast to pass 50-100 n mi to the southeast of Bermuda during the next 12 to 24 hours. Earl should then turn northeastward in about 36 hours and reach its fastest forward speed in about 48 hours. Soon thereafter, Earl is forecast to become embedded within the aforementioned trough, which will cause it to slow down considerably and possibly even meander to the southeast of Newfoundland in 3 to 4 days. The new NHC track prediction is shifted a bit westward during the first 48 hours, mainly to account for the recent movement of Earl`s center. The forecast is a bit north of and slower than the previous forecast on days 3 through 5, shifted toward the GFS, ECMWF, and multi-model consensus aids. Deep-layer shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in just a few hours. Along with waters remaining at or above 29 degrees Celsius for the next 36 hours, the more conducive atmospheric conditions are expected to cause Earl to strengthen further, reaching major hurricane intensity later today, and likely peaking in strength in 36-48 hours. Earl will start to become involved with a frontal boundary and deep-layer trough in about 48 hours, and its transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone is now expected to be complete to the southeast of Newfoundland by 60 hours. The extratropical low is expected to weaken rather quickly, with its winds falling below hurricane force between days 3 and 4. The NHC intensity prediction closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids for much of the 5-day forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Earl`s center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl`s track shifts farther west than is currently forecast. 2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 28.2N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 32.0N 63.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 35.1N 59.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 39.1N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 42.4N 51.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 44.3N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 45.4N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 46.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |
