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| #11064 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 01.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PEAKED AT 4.0 T NUMBERS AT 18Z AND HAVE NOW DECREASED TO 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME ELEMENTS PRESENT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE. ALSO A 21Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SEEN TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WITH COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD...LISA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16. LISA IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MOSTLY EASTWARD BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MERGER BETWEEN LISA AND AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROBABLY THE REMNANT OF JEANNE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS SEPARATE SYSTEMS. IN EITHER CASE...LISA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 39.6N 42.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 41.5N 39.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 44.2N 32.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1200Z 45.6N 23.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 46.5N 13.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL |
