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| #1106564 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 09.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022 Earl has maintained its rather large eye that is encircled by cloud tops as cold as -70 degrees C this evening. Microwave satellite imagery also shows that Earl still has a symmetric inner core and there are no indications of transitioning into an extratropical cyclone yet. Satellite Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were 5.0 and therefore, the initial intensity remains at 90 kt. The cyclone has increased in forward speed to the northeast at an estimated 45/25 kt. This motion is expected to continue for another 12 hours or so before Earl merges with a mid-latitude trough located just west of the storm. Upon merging, Earl is expected to slow down off the coast of Newfoundland in about 24 hours for a couple of days while turning eastward. In about 3 days, Earl is likely to accelerate eastward over the North Atlantic. The official track forecast is slightly faster and a little south of the previous prediction and close to the corrected model consensus aids. As stated earlier, there are no signs of Earl beginning its extratropical transition yet. However, statistical model guidance suggests the vertical wind shear will rapidly increase over the hurricane shortly and induce weakening. The tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand as Earl becomes a post-tropical cyclone over the next day or so. This will cause it to continue to produce large waves and swell in a vast area of the western Atlantic even as Earl weakens. There is a high risk of rip current conditions across the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland through the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast and are beginning to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 38.1N 55.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 41.2N 53.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 43.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1200Z 43.8N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 44.2N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z 44.5N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z 44.7N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 45.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z 46.0N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
