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| #1107192 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 14.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 Visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has become better defined. The associated convection has persisted overnight and this morning, and although it is confined to the eastern portion of the circulation it has enough organization to classify the system as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is a little above the latest TAFB Dvorak classification of T1.5, but in line with overnight scatterometer data. Moderate westerly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere are expected to prevent significant intensification, but some modest strengthening is possible over the next day or two, and the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday. After the system moves into the eastern Caribbean, the westerly shear is forecast to increase somewhat and the global models suggest that the system could struggle to maintain its closed circulation after that time. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the IVCN intensity forecast, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through the forecast period. Weakening is indicated by day 5 when the system is forecast to interact with Hispaniola. The depression is moving westward or 280/12 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move slightly north of due westward along the south side of a low to mid-level ridge that is anchored over the central and western Atlantic. Although the track guidance is tightly clustered, there are some differences in forward speed with the ECMWF much faster than the GFS. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is near the TVCA and GFEX consensus aids to account for the differences in the forward speed. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands on Friday or Friday night, bringing heavy rainfall and possible wind impacts. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of the depression as tropical storm watches could be required for some islands later today. 2. The system could move near or over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and some wind impacts to these areas, and interests there should monitor the progress of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.6N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.7N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 16.9N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 17.1N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 19.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown |
