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| #1107824 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 PM 18.Sep.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 800 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022 ...CENTER OF FIONA HEADING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 67.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 67.8 West. Fiona has jogged westward over the past few hours, but a northwestward motion near 9 mph (15 km/h) should resume later this evening. A northwestward motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move near the eastern and northern coasts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been measured at Los Mareas in Puerto Rico within the past couple of hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on portions of Puerto Rico, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic late tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches on St. Croix. Puerto Rico: 12 to 18 inches with local maximum of 30 inches, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast. Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches. Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. These rains will produce life-threatening and catastrophic flash and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico to Guayama, Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Guayama, Puerto Rico to Fajardo, Puerto Rico including the islands of Vieques and Culebra...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the Turks and Caicos in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
