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| #1107929 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 19.Sep.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022 ...FIONA MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 69.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo * Turks and Caicos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 69.5 West. Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Fiona is forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). An AWOS observation station at Samana El Catey, Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph (157 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later today. Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico for the next few hours, and over portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic today. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix. Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over 30 inches. Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20 inches. Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section. Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches. These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday. Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts |
