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| #1107953 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 PM 19.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022 The hurricane is beginning to move away from the Dominican Republic and over the warm waters of the Atlantic north of Hispaniola. Fiona`s cloud pattern is well organized and its inner core is becoming better defined with very cold cloud tops becoming concentrated near the eye. Upper-level outflow is strong over most of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 85 kt which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and assess its structure and intensity. Fiona continues to move northwestward, at a slightly faster forward speed, or at about 325/9 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous few advisory packages. During the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to gradually turn toward the north while moving along the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone. In 3-5 days, Fiona should turn toward the north-northeast and accelerate in response to a vigorous mid-tropospheric trough near the northeast coast of the United States. Global model forecasts continue to show moderate upper-level west-southwesterly flow over Fiona while it moves over the southwestern Atlantic early this week. Although this flow should cause some shear over the hurricane during the next couple of days, the intensity guidance models indicate that this shear will not be strong enough to prevent further intensification. The official intensity forecast has been increased a little more for this advisory and is in good agreement with the latest LGEM guidance. It now appears that Fiona will become a major hurricane sooner than previously forecast. Near the end of the forecast period, as the system becomes more embedded within the mid-latitude flow and interacts with the strong mid-tropospheric trough, it should be making the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. This is also suggested by the latest FSU cyclone phases analyses. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from the trailing bands of Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through this evening, and across the eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rains could produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico and eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. 3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 71.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 24.1N 71.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 25.7N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 27.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 37.0N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
