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| #110816 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 14.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 GORDON REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE AND AN EYE TEMPERATURE NEAR 16 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT SOUTH- WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT...AND 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS WERE AROUND 115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT. THE LAST COUPLE OF INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS GETTING DEEPER...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...GORDON'S INTENSITY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT GORDON HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH 5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER WATERS...SHEAR...AND A HOSTILE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE PULLS OUT AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF GORDON WEAKENS. AFTER 72 HOURS....THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID- LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 29.5N 55.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W 90 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
