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| #1108199 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 21.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Fiona has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a well-defined 20-n mi diameter eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The hurricane has a large Central Dense Overcast with surrounding banding features, especially over the northeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern and eastern portions of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 115 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB. During the next couple of days, Fiona will continue to traverse warm ocean waters and remain within a moist air mass. Therefore some additional strengthening could occur. Fluctuations in intensity are also possible due to eyewall replacements, but these are difficult to time. In 60-72 hours, Fiona is expected to interact with a vigorous mid-latitude trough near the northeastern United States coast, which should lead to its transition into an intense extratropical cyclone by 72 hours. The hurricane continues to move northward, or at about 360/7 kt. Fiona is likely to move northward to north-northeastward along the western side of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward to north-northeastward along the eastern side of the above mentioned trough. The new official forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and is very close to both the corrected and simple dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions are expected, on Bermuda by late Thursday. 2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 24.6N 71.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 25.8N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 34.4N 65.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 39.7N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 45.3N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1200Z 51.5N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/1200Z 58.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
