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| #11082 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 02.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004 IN SOMEWHAT OF A SURPRISE...CONVECTION HAS COOLED AGAIN NEAR THE EYE OF LISA AND THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. LISA IS AGAIN UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE DESPITE BEING OVER 23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS LISA IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE CLOUDINESS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FALL BELOW 20C IN LESS THAN 24 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM AND CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. AFTER THAT...LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. LISA SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 40.8N 40.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 43.0N 36.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 44.9N 28.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1800Z 46.1N 18.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
