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| #1108314 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 22.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Fiona is showing signs of slow decay in satellite imagery, with the eye gradually becoming cloud filled and the eyewall convection becoming more ragged. However, this has not yet led to a significant decrease in the satellite intensity estimates, which range from 100-130 kt. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt pending the arrival of the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but this could be a little generous. The hurricane has turned north-northeastward during the past several hours with the initial motion now 025/11 kt. Fiona is expected to accelerate in a generally north-northeasterly direction for the next 24 h or so as it is steered along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should take the center northwest of Bermuda in 24-30 h. After that time, an even faster motion is forecast as the hurricane interacts with a powerful deep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic from the northeastern United States. This interaction should steer the cyclone toward Atlantic Canada later Friday and Friday night. After 48 h, a northward motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected, with the center moving near or over, eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador into the Labrador Sea by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered, and the new NHC track forecast is again mainly an update of the previous prediction. Little change, or perhaps a slow decrease in intensity is expected during the next 24 h or so while Fiona remains over warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius and in a generally low-shear environment. After that, interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough should begin the process of extratropical transition, which should complete between 48-60 h as the center of Fiona approaches Nova Scotia. The extratropical low is forecast to continue producing hurricane-force winds as it crosses Nova Scotia and moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence through 60 h, and it is expected to continue producing gale-force winds as it moves across Newfoundland and Labrador until near the end of the forecast period. There is little change in the intensity guidance from the previous advisory, and there are only minor changes in the intensity forecast. The wind radii were modified based on a combination of scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through Friday morning, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the island. 2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause dangerous and possibly life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 27.4N 70.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 32.5N 66.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 43.0N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 46.7N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 49.7N 60.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z 57.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z 62.5N 58.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
