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| #1108352 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 22.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane is not quite as impressive as yesterday. The large eye has become cloud filled and the surrounding cloud top temperatures are not quite as cold. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has very recently reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt in the southeastern eyewall. The peak SFMR winds have been 107 kt and latest minimum central pressure is around 936 mb. These data support maintaining the initial intensity of 115 kt. A NOAA Saildrone located about 45 n mi east of the center has recently reported sustained winds of 67 kt and a significant wave height of 50 ft. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 025/13 kt. Additional acceleration is expected while Fiona moves north-northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies through tonight. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the northeastern U.S. is expected to steer Fiona northward toward Atlantic Canada. The storm is forecast to pass over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and a slower northward or north-northeastward motion over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador is expected after that time. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and the new official forecast is once again essentially an update of the previous one. Only a slight decrease in intensity is predicted over the next 12-24 hours while Fiona remains over warm waters and in a low-shear environment. By 36 hours, interaction with the aforementioned trough will begin extratropical transition, and this process is forecast to be complete by 48 hours when the system is near Nova Scotia. The global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce hurricane-force winds when it reaches Nova Scotia. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the global model guidance during the post-tropical phase. Based on the latest forecast the Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for much of Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through Friday morning. 2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for much of Atlantic Canada. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 34.6N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 40.6N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 45.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 48.1N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z 51.8N 59.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1200Z 58.9N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1200Z 64.2N 57.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
