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| #1108519 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 23.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 Fiona is pulling away from Bermuda and racing toward Atlantic Canada. Although the core of Fiona missed Bermuda, the Bermuda Weather Service reported that there were wind gusts up to 100 kt on the island early this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the major hurricane and have found that it remains powerful and very large. The maximum flight-level wind at 700 mb was 144 kt in the southeast quadrant and the peak SFMR wind was 109 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 115 kt, which makes Fiona a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images show that Fiona still has a relatively well-defined eye and deep convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, but dry air and westerly vertical wind shear are beginning to affect the system. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is moving very quickly to the northeast at about 30 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn slightly to the left and slow down as it interacts and merges with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. The center of Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada late tonight or early Saturday, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The models suggest that Fiona will slow down significantly, but continue a generally northward motion through the weekend and into early next week. The NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Fiona is expected to begin weakening soon given the increasing shear and dry air entrainment, there is high confidence that Fiona will be a powerful cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada. The system is forecast to complete extratropical transition when it merges with the trough just before or around the time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the IVCN and HCCA models after that. Key Messages: 1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. 2. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue for a few more hours in Bermuda. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 35.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Wpc Forecaster |
