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| #1108583 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 23.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 Fiona is beginning to take on the appearance of an extratropical cyclone. The cloud pattern is becoming more elongated and asymmetrical, with cooler-air stratocumulus clouds near the western semicircle of the cyclone. The eye became obscured a few hours ago and, assuming gradual weakening since the last Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into the system, the current intensity is set at 110 kt. Satellite center fixes indicate that Fiona has been moving very rapidly toward the north-northeast, or about 030/35 kt. The numerical guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will slow its forward speed during the next few days while it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough. The center of Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada by Saturday morning, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The NHC track forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions, and similar to the previous official track prediction. Fiona is expected to slowly weaken during the next few days due to increasing shear and dry air entrainment. In 12 hours, the system should become embedded within a baroclinic zone, and be transformed into an extratropical cyclone. This is also indicated by simulated infrared satellite imagery from the global models. However, there is high confidence that Fiona will remain a powerful cyclone, with hurricane-force winds, when it moves across Atlantic Canada. The system should wind down into a gale center by the time it reaches the southeastern Labrador Sea. The official forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. 2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 39.6N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 44.0N 60.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/1800Z 47.2N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/1800Z 54.5N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/0600Z 58.5N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z 60.0N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
