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| #1108618 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 23.Sep.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 Gaston continues to decline. Its associated deep convection has been stripped away by strong northwesterly vertical wind shear, and the cyclone now consists of a swirl of mainly low-level clouds with embedded squalls. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI value from TAFB. The storm has made its anticipated turn to the southwest and is now moving at 220/7 kt. A building ridge to the north of Gaston should turn the cyclone westward later today, and this motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates late in the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one. On this track, Gaston will move near or over the central and western Azores today. Dry air, relatively cool SSTs of 24-25 degrees C, and persistent strong vertical wind shear should cause Gaston to struggle to maintain persistent organized deep convection. Therefore, further weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by tonight, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast was lowered slightly from the previous one and is close to the various multi-model consensus intensities. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the western and central Azores today. 2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and central Azores today. This rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 38.9N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 38.4N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 38.5N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/1200Z 38.7N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 26/0000Z 38.7N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 26/1200Z 38.6N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 27/0000Z 38.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 37.4N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
