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| #1108623 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 23.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 Hermine has changed little in organization since earlier this evening. Persistent deep convection has been occurring in the northeastern quadrant, with the estimated low-level circulation center located just to the southwest of the edge of the convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The cyclone has turned northward and is moving at a heading of 350/9 kt toward a break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A northward to northeastward motion is expected into early next week while Hermine remains in tact. A turn to the northwest is expected by 72 h as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 60 h, but is a little to the right thereafter due to an overall shift in the track guidance. Hermine now has about 18-24 hours to intensify in the presence of marginal SSTs and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. After 24 h, the southwesterly shear is forecast to progressively increase while dry air gets pulled into the storm`s environment. Therefore weakening is expected after that time, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests that Hermine should degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection on Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches, over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from the cyclone. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.7N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 24.7N 20.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 25.4N 20.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 26.1N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 27.8N 25.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
