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| #1108665 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 24.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 800 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 Hermine is barely holding on as a tropical storm. This morning`s satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation situated well to the south-southwest of the deep convective mass. The initial intensity is set at a generous 35 kt. The southwesterly shear is currently affecting Hermine`s cloud pattern is predicted to increase while the thermodynamic surrounding environment becomes progressively inhibiting. Therefore, Hermine may hang on as a tropical storm today, but weakening is expected to occur soon, and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system on Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. The 0900 UTC position is based on a centroid point between multiple surface swirls, one well to the south of the convection and another near the edge of the convective canopy. Hermine`s initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/9 kt. Hermine is expected to turn toward the northeast around the northwest periphery of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge Sunday evening. By Monday evening, the vertically shallow remnant low should turn toward the northwest in the east Atlantic trade wind flow. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies in the middle of the model guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.2N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 21.5N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 23.3N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 24.6N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 25.4N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 25.7N 21.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 26.2N 22.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
