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| #1108672 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 24.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022 Around 07Z, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona made landfall on the Canso Peninsula of Nova Scotia near Hart Island and Guysborough. Surface observations indicate that the minimum pressure at landfall was near 931 mb. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 80 kt based on earlier scatterometer data, with these winds occurring primarily to the east and southeast of the center. Fiona is starting to slow its forward motion, with the initial motion now 360/23 kt. A general northward to north-northeastward motion with some additional decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 60 h. A subsequent northeastward motion is then forecast until the cyclone dissipates just after 72 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies a little west of the previous track at 24-36 h. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Fiona`s winds should drop below hurricane strength in just over 12 h. After that, winds should decrease below gale force by 72 h while the system is over the Labrador Sea. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and lies on the upper edge of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone today, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. 2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 46.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 24/1800Z 48.7N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 25/0600Z 52.2N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/1800Z 56.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/0600Z 59.4N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/1800Z 61.9N 58.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z 64.1N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
